← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 37% | 36% | 2.62 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 36% | 32% | 2.71 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.62 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 54% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 46% | 2.27 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 11 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand