← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 75% | 73% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.50 | value: +14% |
| Le Havre AC win | 10% | 10% | 10.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −1.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 38% | 2.86 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josué Casimir · Le Havre AC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ernest Nuamah · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mathieu Gorgelin · Le Havre AC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Loic Négo · Le Havre AC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Malick Fofana · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 84' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thiago Almada · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 74.00 | 258.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1856.91 | 1562.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.28 | 9.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.79 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.59 |
| league points | 42.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.31 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 27.79 |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.97 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.41 |