← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 40% | 46% | 2.48 | value: +14% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 32% | 27% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Le Havre AC −0.25 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 50% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 50% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lucas Stassin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 22' | 🟨 | Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Yanis Zouaoui · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 45' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Aimen Moueffek · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lamine Fomba · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 251.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1564.22 | 1557.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.37 | -31.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| league points | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.93 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | -0.83 | -4.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 9.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.73 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.21 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 3.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.23 |