← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 46% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.30 | value: +10% |
| Angers SCO win | 25% | 25% | 4.09 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO +0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Toulouse FC +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Vincent Sierro · Toulouse FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Yahia Fofana · Angers SCO |
| 71' | ⚽ | Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Warren Kamanzi · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Noah Edjouma · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 13 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 732.00 | 640.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1618.50 | 1729.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.32 | -6.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 7.93 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.55 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.32 |