← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 68% | 71% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.85 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 12% | 10% | 8.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −1.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Le Havre AC −1.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Neil El Aynaoui · Racing Club de Lens |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ruben Aguilar · Racing Club de Lens |
| 21' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 33' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ruben Aguilar · Racing Club de Lens |
| 48' | ⚽ | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 62' | ⚽ | Josué Casimir · Le Havre AC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Wesley Saïd · Racing Club de Lens |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ahmed Hassan · Le Havre AC |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ahmed Hassan · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 273.00 | 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1738.76 | 1548.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.39 | -7.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.65 |
| league points | 33.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 6.17 | 6.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.80 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 27.22 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.01 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.31 |