← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 46% | 48% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 25% | 26% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC +0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Toulouse FC +0.5 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 52% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 48% | 2.33 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse FC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincent Sierro · Toulouse FC |
| 59' | 🟥 | Junior Mwanga · Le Havre AC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Vincent Sierro · Toulouse FC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Warren Kamanzi · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days |
| 237.00 |
| 633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1510.17 | 1662.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.76 | -15.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.90 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 24.55 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.09 |