← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 22, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 39% | 38% | 2.53 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.25 | 46% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 58% | 1.94 | value: +12% |
| Over | 50% | 42% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Dylan Batubinsika · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 17' | ⚽ | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 26' | 🟨 | Yvann Maçon · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 36' | ⚽ | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 52' | ⚽ | Pierre Ekwah · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 73' | ⚽ | Irvin Cardona · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maxime Bernauer · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 83.00 | 724.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1566.39 | 1618.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.47 | 11.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.75 | -1.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.79 |
| league points | 18.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 6.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -3.64 | -0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 29.23 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 3.16 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.93 |