← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 59% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.19 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 18% | 15% | 5.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC +1 | 53% | 1.88 |
| OGC Nice +1 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Étienne Youte Kinkoue · OGC Nice |
| 28' | ⚽ | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Junior Mwanga · Le Havre AC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟥 | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days | 230.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1570.02 | 1771.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.67 | 16.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.52 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 17.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.93 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.67 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.88 | 27.65 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.57 |