← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Fri, Feb 14, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 45% | 42% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.43 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 27% | 29% | 3.67 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 40% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 60% | 1.98 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 30' | 🟨 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 60' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Ndiaye · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Ndiaye · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 775.00 | 867.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1694.23 | 1605.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.02 | -22.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 67.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| league points | 31.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.07 | 5.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 30.07 | 26.28 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.10 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 0.93 |