← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 63% | 57% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.57 | value: +5% |
| Reims win | 16% | 21% | 6.26 | value: +29% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Reims −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 60% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 40% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 31' | 🟨 | Clinton Mata · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 36' | ⚽ | Nicolás Tagliafico · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nhoa Sangui · Reims |
| 68' | ⚽ | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 79' | ⚽ | Rayan Cherki · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 87' | 🟥 | Ras Zabi · Reims |
| 90' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days | 39.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1806.12 | 1662.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.05 | -43.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 30.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | -0.13 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 25.70 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 0.94 |