← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 20% | 26% | 4.97 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Le Havre AC −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 38% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Loic Négo · Le Havre AC |
| 10' | 🟥 | Lilian Raolisoa · Angers SCO |
| 16' | 🟥 | Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 25' | 🟨 | Josué Casimir · Le Havre AC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 73' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florent Hanin · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 704.00 | 216.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1562.30 | 1498.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.33 | -29.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -1.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| solidity v1 | 0.59 | -1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 29.91 |
| state index | 0.40 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.04 |