← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 1, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 63% | 72% | 1.51 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.38 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 14% | 10% | 7.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 48' | 🟥 | Dylan Batubinsika · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 50' | 🟨 | Augustine Boakye · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 62' | 🟨 | Gabriel Gudmundsson · Lille OSC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Osame Sahraoui · Lille OSC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Gabriel Gudmundsson · Lille OSC |
| 78' | ⚽ | Osame Sahraoui · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 62.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1781.99 | 1544.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.20 | 13.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.25 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | 1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.48 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.99 |