β Ligue 1 2024-25 Β· Sun, Jan 26, 04:15 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Kherradji
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 63% | 74% | 1.50 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 22% | 16% | 4.44 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 15% | 9% | 7.15 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens β1 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Angers SCO β1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 57% | 1.82 | value: +3% |
| Under | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |