← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 12, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 46% | 47% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 26% | 26% | 3.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 55% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 45% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Esteban Lepaul · Angers SCO |
| 39' | 🟨 | Rabby Nzingoula · Montpellier |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mousa Tamari · Montpellier |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · Angers SCO |
| 53' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Montpellier |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 69' | ⚽ | Esteban Lepaul · Angers SCO |
| 73' | 🟨 | Boubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier |
| 83' | 🟨 | Khalil Fayad · Montpellier |
| 84' | 🟨 | Boubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier |
| 84' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 |
| 🟥 |
| Boubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier |
| 85' | 🟥 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Haris Belkebla · Angers SCO |
| 90' | ⚽ | Zinedine Ferhat · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 103.00 | 683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1620.79 | 1587.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.99 | 9.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.84 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.44 | 28.10 |
| state index | -0.20 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.16 |