← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 23% | 20% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Hamed Junior Traorè · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jubal · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Habib Diarra · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 51' | 🟨 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 59' | ⚽ | Félix Lemaréchal · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 87' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 188.00 | 827.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 0.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1615.80 | 1642.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.19 | 24.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -1.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 37.80 |
| rest days | 20.92 | 21.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -1.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.49 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 21.63 | 25.64 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.10 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.70 |