← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 3, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 30% | 30% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.17 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 12' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 27' | ⚽ | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 31' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 49' | ⚽ | Adrien Truffert · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 61' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssouf Ndayishimiye · OGC Nice |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 90' |
| 🟥 |
| Pablo Rosario · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 216.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1686.93 | 1662.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.86 | -17.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 19.25 | 19.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -2.39 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 1.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.08 | 26.67 |
| state index | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.39 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.00 |