← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 7, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.99 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 15% | 16% | 6.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −1 | 52% | 1.86 |
| OGC Nice −1 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 2.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 64' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 75' | ⚽ | Badredine Bouanani · OGC Nice |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tanguy Ndombélé · OGC Nice |
| 88' | 🟨 | Timothee Pembele · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 189.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1692.02 | 1532.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.70 | -5.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | — |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 7.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | -0.17 |
| solidity v1 | -1.20 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.04 |