← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 56% | 47% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 31% | 4.33 | value: +34% |
| OGC Nice win | 21% | 22% | 4.79 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| OGC Nice −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 66% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 34% | 2.62 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 22' | ⚽ | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 41' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jordan Veretout · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 54' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tom Louchet · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.83 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 396.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1761.16 | 1703.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.68 | -3.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 2.93 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.88 | 24.21 |
| state index | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.69 |