← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 22% | 23% | 4.53 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier +0.75 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Lille OSC +0.75 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +5% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Mitchel Bakker · Lille OSC |
| 9' | 🟨 | Nikola Maksimović · Montpellier |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ngal'ayel Mukau · Lille OSC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Enzo Tchato Mbiayi · Montpellier |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Issiaga Sylla · Montpellier |
| 47' | 🟨 | Alexsandro Ribeiro · Lille OSC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rémy Cabella · Lille OSC |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 83' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 |
| 🟨 |
| Modibo Sagnan · Montpellier |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 61.00 | 91.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1569.13 | 1793.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.52 | 21.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| league points | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.58 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -1.37 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.64 |
| state index | -0.43 | 0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.42 |