← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 61% | 64% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 16% | 14% | 6.19 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 47% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 53% | 2.02 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟥 | Mathieu Cafaro · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ludovic Blas · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Amine Gouiri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Arnaud Kalimuendo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Gautier Larsonneur · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 2 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 29.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1656.59 | 1550.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.74 | -1.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.72 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.61 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.01 | — |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.35 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.85 | 1.41 |