← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 38% | 47% | 2.63 | value: +23% |
| Montpellier win | 33% | 27% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Montpellier +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 46% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 54% | 2.18 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier |
| 12' | ⚽ | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 16' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jonas Martin · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Jonas Martin · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 62' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · Montpellier |
| 69' | 🟨 | Birama Touré · Montpellier |
| 84' | ⚽ | Tanguy Coulibaly · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Theo Chennahi · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 40.00 | 679.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1560.44 | 1692.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -56.04 | -16.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| league points | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | 0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -2.06 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 28.87 |
| state index | -1.05 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.34 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.11 |