← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 42% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Le Havre AC +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 56% | 1.69 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 44% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Agbadou · Reims |
| 15' | ⚽ | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 21' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura · Reims |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sergio Akieme · Reims |
| 32' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 45' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Junya Ito · Reims |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joseph Okumu · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days | 132.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1542.57 | 1645.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.30 | -9.51 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -1.04 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 30.27 | 25.45 |
| state index | -0.53 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.93 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.78 |