← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Fri, Nov 8, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 66% | 72% | 1.50 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 5.06 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 14% | 11% | 6.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 42% | 2.60 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 43' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | ⚽ | Hamed Junior Traorè · AJ Auxerre |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Olympique de Marseille |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Mason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mason Greenwood · Olympique de Marseille |
| 66' | 🟨 | Donovan Léon · AJ Auxerre |
| 87' | 🟨 | Elye Wahi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thelonius Bair · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 130.00 | 769.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1826.38 | 1658.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.00 | 46.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 0.05 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 25.96 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.12 |