← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 48% | 51% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
| Nantes win | 24% | 19% | 4.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 41% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 59% | 1.97 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 38' | 🟨 | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 57' | ⚽ | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 73' | ⚽ | Dilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 83' | ⚽ | Bahereba Guirassy · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Johann Lepenant · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Zeze · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ignatius Ganago · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 118.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1633.05 | 1554.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.52 | -15.39 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 68.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.36 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 21.59 | 25.56 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.06 |