← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 66% | 66% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +5% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 15% | 14% | 6.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| AJ Auxerre −1.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 57% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 43% | 3.00 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Sinaly Diomandé · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jubal · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Georges Mikautadze · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 47' | ⚽ | Sinaly Diomandé · AJ Auxerre |
| 62' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 72' | ⚽ | Hamed Junior Traorè · AJ Auxerre |
| 80' | 🟨 | Donovan Léon · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rayan Raveloson · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 361.00 | 757.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1803.43 | 1630.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.33 | 2.43 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.53 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.38 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 26.35 |
| state index | 1.23 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.30 | 1.62 |