← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Oct 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 43% | 40% | 2.29 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.50 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 29' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 34' | 🟨 | Yassin Belkhdim · Angers SCO |
| 38' | 🟨 | Augustine Boakye · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jean-Eudes Aholou · Angers SCO |
| 57' | ⚽ | Zuriko Davitashvili · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Ibrahima Niane · Angers SCO |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mathieu Cafaro · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Angers SCO |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 605.00 | 330.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1549.34 | 1581.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.76 | 14.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | -0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.79 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.29 | 26.63 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.22 |