← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Oct 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.19 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 19% | 21% | 5.18 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Montpellier −0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.61 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 25' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura · Reims |
| 27' | 🟨 | Birama Touré · Montpellier |
| 37' | 🟨 | Akor Adams · Montpellier |
| 37' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier |
| 49' | 🟨 | Stefan Džodić · Montpellier |
| 57' | ⚽ | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 58' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 59' | 🟨 | Yaya Fofana · Reims |
| 64' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 73' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune |
| 🟨 |
| Teddy Teuma · Reims |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joris Chotard · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Teddy Teuma · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 127.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1665.46 | 1612.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.66 | -33.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | — |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.67 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.01 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.07 |