← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kherradji
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 54% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.71 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 20% | 21% | 5.05 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne −0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Nantes −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Johann Lepenant · Nantes |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Nantes |
| 52' | 🟨 | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ibrahim Sissoko · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ibrahim Sissoko · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 73' | 🟨 | Mathis Amougou · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcus Coco · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gautier Larsonneur · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days | 212.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1615.84 | 1573.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.75 | -21.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.71 | -2.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.33 | 26.87 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 2.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 0.71 |