← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 46% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 27% | 32% | 3.70 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.25 | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 46% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 54% | 2.38 | value: +28% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Hamed Junior Traorè · AJ Auxerre |
| 33' | 🟨 | Rabby Nzingoula · Montpellier |
| 48' | 🟨 | Elisha Owusu · AJ Auxerre |
| 57' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 61' | 🟨 | Sinaly Diomandé · AJ Auxerre |
| 65' | ⚽ | Akor Adams · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bećir Omeragić · Montpellier |
| 66' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 71' | ⚽ | Modibo Sagnan · Montpellier |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ado Onaiwu · AJ Auxerre |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 |
| ⚽ |
| Akor Adams · Montpellier |
| 76' | 🟨 | Akor Adams · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 599.00 | 722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1608.94 | 1581.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.39 | -22.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 7.92 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -2.68 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.82 |
| state index | -0.75 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.55 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.82 | 1.51 |