← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Fri, Sep 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 64% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.45 | value: +4% |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 14% | 14% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −1 | 54% | 1.79 |
| AS Saint-Étienne −1 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Under | 48% | 43% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ (og) | Dylan Batubinsika · OGC Nice |
| 7' | ⚽ | Tanguy Ndombélé · OGC Nice |
| 22' | 🟨 | Pierre Ekwah · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 24' | ⚽ | Mohamed-Ali Cho · OGC Nice |
| 26' | ⚽ | Youssoufa Moukoko · OGC Nice |
| 36' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 39' | ⚽ | Youssoufa Moukoko · OGC Nice |
| 75' | ⚽ | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Pablo Rosario · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 6 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 111.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1706.79 | 1544.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.53 | -3.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.16 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.28 | — |
| state index | 0.32 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 0.84 |