← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 37% | 33% | 2.60 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 34% | 31% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Le Havre AC +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Paul Joly · AJ Auxerre |
| 14' | 🟨 | Ki-Jana Hoever · AJ Auxerre |
| 17' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Perrin · AJ Auxerre |
| 23' | ⚽ (og) | Elisha Owusu · Le Havre AC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ki-Jana Hoever · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟥 | Ki-Jana Hoever · AJ Auxerre |
| 52' | ⚽ | Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre AC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Josué Casimir · Le Havre AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jubal · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 62.00 | 701.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1615.23 | 1642.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.88 | 8.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.83 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 0.77 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.63 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.58 |