← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Sep 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 50% | 56% | 1.96 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.35 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 22% | 20% | 4.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| OGC Nice +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 58% | 1.64 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 42% | 2.39 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Youssouf Ndayishimiye · OGC Nice |
| 11' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 16' | 🟨 | Badredine Bouanani · OGC Nice |
| 25' | ⚽ | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 30' | 🟨 | Moise Bombito · OGC Nice |
| 33' | 🟨 | Yahia Fofana · Angers SCO |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jean-Eudes Aholou · Angers SCO |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yassin Belkhdim · Angers SCO |
| 56' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 65' | 🟨 | Moise Bombito · OGC Nice |
| 65' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| 🟥 |
| Moise Bombito · OGC Nice |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 72' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 81' | 🟨 | Pierrick Capelle · Angers SCO |
| 81' | 🟨 | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · Angers SCO |
| 85' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 550.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1551.84 | 1764.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.00 | -14.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.11 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.57 | 1.19 |