← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, May 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +10% |
| OGC Nice win | 15% | 13% | 6.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| OGC Nice −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 58% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 42% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Edon Zhegrova · Lille OSC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 55' | ⚽ | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alexsandro Ribeiro · Lille OSC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Alexis Claude-Maurice · OGC Nice |
| 73' | ⚽ | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcin Bułka · OGC Nice |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jordan Lotomba |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 170.00 |
| 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1775.81 | 1718.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.22 | 23.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 58.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| solidity v1 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.58 | 26.70 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.37 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.73 |