← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, May 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 45% | 46% | 2.18 | fair |
| Metz win | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Metz −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Sadibou Sané · Metz |
| 54' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
| 84' | 🟨 | Fali Candé · Metz |
| 89' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alaa Bellaarouch · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 316.00 | 711.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1664.34 | 1608.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.67 | 8.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | — |
| league points | 36.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 32.80 |
| rest days | 8.25 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -1.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.39 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.45 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.20 |