← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Mon, May 6, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Bastien
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 46% | 51% | 2.11 | value: +8% |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 28% | 24% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.78 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Angel Gomes · Lille OSC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Ernest Nuamah · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 37' | ⚽ | Edon Zhegrova · Lille OSC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Saïd Benrahma · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 80' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Malick Fofana · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 85' | ⚽ | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leny Yoro · Lille OSC |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Mama Baldé · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 157.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1838.48 | 1765.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.69 | 22.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.80 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 55.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 8.33 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.77 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 0.56 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.29 | 28.09 |
| state index | 1.01 | 0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.23 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.83 |