← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 37% | 40% | 2.61 | value: +5% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 33% | 32% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Yoann Salmier · Le Havre AC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 86' | ⚽ | Frédéric Guilbert · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 88' | 🟨 | Arthur Desmas · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days |
| 703.00 |
| 308.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1551.75 | 1622.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.76 | 15.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.75 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.28 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 24.01 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.42 |