← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Fri, May 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 28% | 28% | 3.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 53% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 47% | 2.36 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 27' | ⚽ | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 34' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Leo Leroy · Montpellier |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Moussa Diarra · Toulouse FC |
| 65' | 🟥 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 81' | ⚽ | Khalil Fayad · Montpellier |
| 83' | 🟨 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | 🟥 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yann Karamoh |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 337.00 |
| 457.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1671.27 | 1645.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.84 | 32.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 40.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.17 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.77 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.29 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.56 |