← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 43% | 35% | 2.26 | fair |
| AS Monaco FC win | 33% | 42% | 2.94 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.06 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 65% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.