← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 43% | 37% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.30 | value: +12% |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 29% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 60% | 1.72 | value: +3% |
| Over | 43% | 40% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Dilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 34' | 🟨 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · OGC Nice |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 49' | 🟨 | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 52' | ⚽ | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 63' | 🟨 | Abakar Sylla · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Morgan Sanson · OGC Nice |
| 85' | 🟨 | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days |
| 302.00 |
| 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1637.22 | 1706.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.97 | 16.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.57 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 36.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | 1.47 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.01 | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.92 |