← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
| Clermont win | 28% | 34% | 3.52 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Clermont +0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 51% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 49% | 2.37 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Muhammed Cham-Saračević · Clermont |
| 33' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura · Reims |
| 54' | 🟨 | Therence Koudou · Reims |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Muhammed Cham-Saračević · Clermont |
| 59' | 🟨 | Amadou Kone · Reims |
| 60' | 🟨 | Teddy Teuma · Reims |
| 77' | 🟥 | Thibault De Smet · Reims |
| 79' | ⚽ | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel-Montpied |
| coach days | 4319.00 | 575.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1599.83 | 1684.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.54 | -16.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| league points | 22.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.85 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 26.18 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.22 |