← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 39% | 41% | 2.45 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 34% | 31% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lille OSC −0.25 | 54% | 1.84 |
| AS Monaco FC −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.