← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Wed, Apr 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 43% | 40% | 2.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 28% | 30% | 3.57 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 48% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 52% | 2.32 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 13' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 22' | 🟨 | Faris Moumbagna · Olympique de Marseille |
| 31' | ⚽ | Jonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟨 | Faris Moumbagna · Olympique de Marseille |
| 45' | 🟥 | Faris Moumbagna · Olympique de Marseille |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mohamed-Ali Cho · OGC Nice |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · OGC Nice |
| 72' | ⚽ | Melvin Bard · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| coach days |
| 83.00 |
| 328.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1736.09 | 1703.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.94 | 0.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.89 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 26.84 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.85 |