← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Gaillouste
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 43% | 48% | 2.24 | value: +7% |
| Montpellier win | 31% | 25% | 3.21 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Reims −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 49% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 51% | 2.40 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Modibo Sagnan · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 47' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Montpellier |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 66' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Agbadou · Reims |
| 69' | 🟨 | Modibo Sagnan · Montpellier |
| 82' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 86' | ⚽ | Mousa Tamari · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adama Bojang · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune |
| coach days |
| 568.00 |
| 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1638.63 | 1638.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.46 | 31.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 1.83 |