← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 47% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 25% | 27% | 4.05 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.86 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 22 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| Nicolás Tagliafico · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | 🟥 | Nicolás Tagliafico · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 86' | 🟥 | Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 87' | 🟨 | Bradley Locko · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nemanja Matić · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Bizot · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Ainsley Maitland-Niles · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 165.00 |
| 469.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1693.02 | 1730.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.00 | 9.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 66.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 38.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | -0.67 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 27.92 |
| state index | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.85 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.39 |