← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 39% | 40% | 2.54 | fair |
| Reims win | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −0.25 | 55% | 1.77 |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.25 | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 58% | 1.93 | value: +12% |
| Over | 49% | 42% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura · Reims |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 28' | 🟨 | Amadou Kone · Reims |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Kévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Amadou Kone · Reims |
| 45' | 🟥 | Amadou Kone · Reims |
| 50' | ⚽ | Abakar Sylla · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 79' | 🟨 | Amir Richardson · Reims |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dion Moise Sahi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days | 287.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1686.32 | 1709.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.31 | 6.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.87 | 25.89 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |