← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 62% | 57% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.25 | fair |
| Metz win | 15% | 22% | 6.50 | value: +46% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz +1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Racing Club de Lens +1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 55% | 1.92 | value: +6% |
| Under | 49% | 45% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Florian Sotoca · Racing Club de Lens |
| 20' | 🟨 | Kevin Van Den Kerkhof · Metz |
| 34' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ismaël Traoré · Metz |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Racing Club de Lens |
| 45' | 🟨 | Andy Diouf · Racing Club de Lens |
| 45' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
| 46' | 🟨 | Deiver Machado · Racing Club de Lens |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jhoanner Chávez · Racing Club de Lens |
| 78' | 🟨 | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days |
| 681.00 |
| 1503.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1543.12 | 1747.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.71 | -12.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| league points | 23.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.33 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -1.35 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.10 | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.46 |