← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 44% | 42% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
| Nantes win | 27% | 28% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Nantes +0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 18' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Nantes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 71' | 🟨 | Ernest Nuamah · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 75' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 77' | ⚽ | Malick Fofana · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gift Orban · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| coach days |
| 37.00 |
| 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1536.87 | 1681.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.30 | 14.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 7.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.15 | 27.84 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.85 |