← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 03:05 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 53% | 57% | 1.82 | value: +4% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 24% | 18% | 4.12 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.23 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AS Monaco FC −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 61% | 1.51 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.