← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 53% | 56% | 1.83 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| FC Lorient win | 23% | 17% | 4.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Montpellier −0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 54% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 46% | 2.42 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Julien Ponceau · FC Lorient |
| 14' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 44' | 🟨 | Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Formose Mendy · FC Lorient |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Adjei · FC Lorient |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mohamed Bamba · FC Lorient |
| 61' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Yann Karamoh |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 431.00 |
| 676.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1629.21 | 1572.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.31 | -13.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.95 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.11 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.23 |