← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Apr 7, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 64% | 68% | 1.51 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.20 | fair |
| Metz win | 13% | 10% | 7.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −1 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Metz −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.77 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ismaël Traoré · Metz |
| 12' | ⚽ | Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 38' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Martín Satriano · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Matthieu Udol · Metz |
| 74' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
| 80' | ⚽ | Georges Mikautadze · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |
| coach days |
| 462.00 |
| 676.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1726.07 | 1547.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.18 | 0.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.70 |
| league points | 50.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 24.10 |
| state index | 1.03 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.50 |